China Will Help Drive The NOx Control Market To $5 Billion/year
By 2011 the worldwide sales of NOx Control systems and catalyst will exceed $5 billion/yr. The sales of selective catalytic reduction systems will rise and fall year to year and country to country, whereas the catalyst sales will steadily increase. These are the latest forecasts in the McIlvaine report, NOx Control: World Markets.
The largest single market for NOx control is coal-fired boilers. U.S. power plants will continue to buy more systems than those in other countries. Only one third of U.S. coal-fired plants have purchased SCR (selective catalytic reduction) or SNCR (selective non-catalytic reduction) systems but this total will grow to 50 percent by 2010 and 100 percent by 2020.
All new U.S coal-fired boilers will be equipped with NOx control equipment. Recent resistance to new plants based on greenhouse gas emissions will cause postponement of some construction. However, the U.S. retrofit market will remain strong. Furthermore, the imposition of ambient particulate limits will force the individual states to ratchet down limits for industrial plants. Thus the general outlook in the U.S. is positive.
Europe is on a buying binge based on an approach to greenhouse gas reduction which is directly the opposite of that in the U.S. Europeans believe that replacing old coal-fired plants with new ones is the best way to reduce greenhouse gases. As a result, a large number of new coal-fired boilers are under design and construction. Each will have a new SCR.
China is now operating or has under construction 30,000 MW of SCR systems. Large numbers of additional systems are also planned. By 2020 China will be operating more SCR systems than any country in the world.
Presently only KWH is making catalyst in China. Most of the catalyst is being imported from Japan, the U.S. and Europe. There are capacity increases underway in Japan, but they are not going to be enough to meet the growing worldwide demand.
Other industries represent small but significant markets for NOx control. Waste incinerators typically utilize SNCR, but there are SCR units as well. Cement is a potentially large market. SCR systems are now operating on cement plants in two European countries.
Anhydrous ammonia will remain the least expensive and most popular reagent. However, urea and aqueous ammonia will be selected in populous areas where there are safety concerns.
The market for catalyst will expand as multi-pollutant capabilities are added. Manufacturers have developed catalysts with lower conversion rates of SO2 to SO3. These are more expensive than the standard catalyst. The biggest challenge has been to develop catalysts with lower SO3 conversion rates but with higher mercury oxidation rates. These catalysts will sell at a premium.
One way that greenhouse gas concerns will lead to more rather than less SCR is through the use of CO2 scrubbers and CO2 sequestration. Very high levels of NOx removal will be required before the flue gas can be introduced into the CO2 scrubber. This will require larger SCR systems with more catalyst.
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