New England electricity production adequate for winter, despite pipeline concerns
New England’s regional grid operator said electricity supplies should be sufficient to meet demand this winter, but warned the region needs to expand its natural gas infrastructure to adequately serve power plants during peak heating demand.
ISO New England (ISO-NE) said it has launched its Winter Reliability Program in order to pay generators that burn oil or liquid natural gas to buy fuel to ensure the lights stay on during cold weather. The operator said it implemented the program to prevent “possible natural gas pipeline constraints [that] could limit electricity production from natural gas power plants.”
“Winter has become a challenging time for New England grid operations,” said Vamsi Chadalavada, executive vice president and chief operating officer of ISO New England Inc. “Especially during the coldest weeks of the year, the natural gas infrastructure in New England is inadequate to meet the demand for gas for both heating and power generation. In fact, we’ve identified over 4,000 megawatts (MW) of natural gas-fired generating capacity at risk of not getting sufficient fuel on any given day.”
The program gives financial incentives to power plants so they can buy and store fuel in case spot prices of gas climbs to unaffordable levels or if gas-fired plants can not access enough natural gas during cold periods. The program was created after a cold snap three years ago caused near brownouts as plants that were reliant on fuels other than gas were unable to access supplies.
ISO-NE said at least 31,000 MW of generation is available in the six-state region, about 9,000 MW more than the operator’s demand forecast even if extreme weather hits. About 44 percent, or 14,850 MW of the region’s total generation capacity now burns natural gas as its primary fuel. The region’s gas pipelines were not designed to serve demand for both heating and power generation, resulting in pipes that are at or near capacity for commercial and residential heating, according to ISO-NE.
Pipeline capacity remaining after heating can theoretically be sold for power generation, however ISO-NE has identified 3,450 MW of gas-fired generating capacity that could be at risk because of pipeline constraints.
Completion of Spectra Energy’s Algonquin Incremental Market project will help winter demand by adding 342,000 decatherms per day, but ISO-NE says this capacity will ultimately be absorbed by local gas distribution companies.
“Despite planning for these anticipated risks, if the region experiences any combination of extreme cold for an extended time, power plant outages, and limitations on natural gas delivery, maintaining reliability could require the use of emergency procedures,” Chadalavada said. “Beyond this winter, the situation will grow even more uncertain because non-gas power plants are retiring and being replaced primarily with new, gas-fired generation. We are currently evaluating how the ISO will maintain reliability in the future under these conditions.”
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