Robust Energy Production Growth Coupled With Relatively Flat U.S. Demand Support Net Energy Exports in EIA’s AEO2018
February 7, 2018 -- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released today its Annual Energy Outlook 2018 (AEO2018), which includes its Reference case and a number of sensitivity cases. The AEO2018 Reference case shows continued development of the U.S. shale and tight oil and gas resources paired with modest energy consumption growth, leading to the transition of the United States from a net energy importer to a net energy exporter across most cases examined in AEO2018. 'The United States energy system continues to undergo an incredible transformation,' said EIA Administrator Linda Capuano. 'This is most obvious when one considers that the AEO shows the United States becoming a net exporter of energy during the projection period in the Reference case and in most of the sensitivity cases as well—a very different set of expectations than we imagined even five or ten years ago.'
Other key findings:
Increases in energy efficiency temper growth in energy demand throughout the projection. Energy consumption grows about 0.4%/year on average in the Reference case from 2017 to 2050. Annual real GDP growth is expected to average 2.0% to 2050 in the Reference case.
Almost all of new electricity generation capacity is fueled by natural gas and renewables after 2022 in the Reference case. This is the result of natural gas prices that remain below $5/million British thermal units until the very end of the projection period and the continued decline in the cost of renewables, especially solar photovoltaic.
Production of U.S. liquids and natural gas continues to grow through 2042 and 2050, respectively. In the Reference case, production of shale gas resources is projected to increase through the end of the projection period. U.S. liquids production begins to decline towards the end of the projection period as less-productive areas are developed.
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