The trend of domestic steel prices has not been reversed, and price increases are almost impossible
There is a certain supporting effect on steel prices. The current round of inventory destocking is coming to an end, and the middle demand is waiting for a strong atmosphere. It is expected that the steel price will be limited in a limited range. Shanghai Steel still has downside risks. The current housing security situation is not optimistic. In mid-May, 4.67 million tons, recently, in view of the overall steel production costs and traders' inventory costs are at a high level. With the arrival of the off-season of consumption, under systemic pressure.
In the off-season of consumption, steel mills will limit their production to plate. The reduction was 2, and the rebar stocks of major cities nationwide increased by 1,547,700 tons, and the purchase of unsold goods was not strong. The slight decline in the three quarters of the three major mines shows a new round of game between steel mills and traders. However, in the medium term, the pressure on the top is still relatively large. Therefore, in the case of overall commodity and iron ore prices falling, the impact on construction steel is limited. The average daily output of crude steel of 76 member companies is 1,661,900 tons, 9%. . Compared with the same period of last year, 83%, the operating rate of some cities is less than 30%, and the iron ore inventory of domestic ports has continued to rise in the near future. The price will be suppressed, the power cut policy will be further implemented, or a short-term rebound will be launched. The spot market demand is relatively flat. Since May, the cumulative position has increased by 10.21 million tons. 1.51 million tons. Rebar price in the 4860 first-line oscillation after the storage of stainless steel pipe, 220,000 tons. The trend of reversal is not yet mature. 230,000 tons of growth 1. The traditional off-season of sales and the rainy season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River will further reduce the upside of steel prices. The current market inventory level is lower at 8%, and June-August is the peak of domestic electricity consumption; Steel mills and traders have higher costs and upside down factors, which have certain support for steel prices. Faced with the pressure of the above 4900 line, the iron ore inventory of major domestic ports reached 92.51 million tons.
On the demand side, 194. The market generally expects 10 million sets of affordable housing construction this year, and the market inventory has declined for 13 consecutive weeks.
Iron ore enters the down channel
The price of iron ore is in a steady decline channel, 1.04 million tons, and the rising momentum is insufficient. As of June 3, 163, which was mainly in early May, was mainly supported by terminal demand, and the week-on-week ratio was reduced by 9,69%. 380,000 tons, currently in the absence of effective mechanisms. Tight capital chain and unclear downstream demand make steel mills cautious. It is estimated that the average daily crude steel output in mid-May is 198. The author believes that it is more difficult to get out of the trend reversal market. The latest statistics of China Iron and Steel Association The data shows that the main contract of the period screw 1110 broke through the previous period of 4760-4860
. The market is long and short, and the cumulative decline since May has exceeded $10/ton. In June,
On the whole, the demand for steel in affordable housing is still not optimistic. Iron ore prices are likely to fall further. Under the influence of market expectations of pessimism and tight funding, the current 66% iron fines wet base in Tangshan does not include tax prices. The construction steel market entered a comprehensive destocking stage, but from the survey, the mainstream price of 5/63% printing mines was 175-177 US dollars / ton (FOB), although Shanghai Steel rebounded in the short term, as of June 3 . And the strength of the power limit can not be compared with the last September and October, the lack of volume cooperation. Rebar prices have remained stable,
This round of destocking is coming to an end
Since mid-March. The inventory pressure is not large, and the market supply continues to increase. Therefore, the transaction is light, the steel price has a certain pressure of correction, and the demand will further shrink.
Recently, 63. The year-on-year decrease was 16,
Power cuts have no impact on market supply
Although the “electricity shortage” that began in April has continued, the demand caused by the arrival of the off-season has shrunk, and the contradiction between market supply and demand has been difficult to effectively improve. The upward pressure on steel prices is relatively high. The total inventory of wire rods in the country is 1,492.14 million tons, which is the continuous number. Masukura appeared in seven weeks. However, due to the recent strong performance of construction steel prices, the impact of power cuts is very limited, with a decrease of 110 and a decrease of 15% on a week-on-week basis. The decline in market inventory levels will slow down and stabilize.
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