Keywords: agent-based modelling, ABM, energy infrastructures, energy modelling, energy transitions, transition management, power generation, carbon policies, LNG market, consumer lighting, agent-based systems, multi-agent systems, MAS, liquefied natural gas, LNG infrastructure, light-emitting diodes, LED lighting, critical infrastructures
Agent-based modelling of energy infrastructure transitions
Shaping energy transitions not only requires technical system innovation and redesign but also new policies, regulations, Research and Development (R&D) and investment strategies – a transition assemblage. Transition management thus equates to designing and implementing such an assemblage. Agent-Based Models (ABMs) may be used for ex-ante assessment of transition assemblage alternatives. To help determine whether the design of a particular model is fit for its purpose, we have developed a typology. Three models were assessed: 1) a model on the impact of CO2 policy on the power production sector; 2) a model on the transition of the global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure; 3) a model on the imminent transition caused by the arrival of Light-Emitting Diode (LED) lighting systems. All three models can be used to compare transition assemblage alternatives and could be adapted to assess regulatory adaptability.