The increasing role of long-term forecasting of natural factors in energy system management

The paper uses an example from East Siberia to deal with the impact of natural factors on the operation of energy systems (hydraulic and heat power engineering), the methodology and methods of their forecasting, experience of operation of the information-forecasting system and risks to and stability of energy systems during severe natural disturbances (low-water periods on reservoirs, cold winters).

Keywords: long-term forecasting, natural factors, approximative learning methods, stability, energy systems