The solar 52 GWp cover is probably going away - and the market too?
In the 'No Climate Package' from September 20, 2019 there is also a wording that the 52 GWp cover for photovoltaics should be deleted. Contrary to what was given in a paper from the lecture, there are no precise stipulations or further adjustments for photovoltaics. It looks like a large part of the photovoltaic market disappears before the cover is painted. What's going on now?
The lid should go away
Ultimately, the massive protests of FridaysForFuture led to the fact that the many other calls to delete the 52 GWp PV cover were heard after many years, at least it has been announced. It should be noted that the cover “only” applies to systems up to 750 kWp that are subsidized by parliamentary remuneration. The plants in the tenders are not affected by the cap, but again count with the exception of the 1 GWp special tenders when determining the cap limit. It's hard to understand even as an insider, but how should this be understood in the “normal” population?
And beware: the law has not yet changed - but when it comes to the structure, the solar industry in the Ministry of Economic Affairs now meets a new head of department, at least 'EEG-critical', Stephanie von Ahlefeldt, previously an employee of the Union parliamentary group and head of the middle class Carsten Linnemann. Accompanied by a completely burned-out Minister Altmaier. Let's see what that will be and whether the law really has changed before the lid closes - what else will probably happen in the first half of 2020. Now, the systems affected by the cover up to 750 kWp accounted for approximately 90% of the German solar market in the first half of the year, so an abrupt termination of subsidies in the segment would again be a major blow to large parts of the German solar industry. In addition, there is a lid on the corporate investment; who should invest in the medium term when the essential framework is over in spring 2020?
Seven years of fascinating PV innovations - not with the EEG
In the seven years since Altmaier (then Minister of the Environment) introduced the lid, however, the new ideas expected at the time to promote the agreed solar expansion did not come about. Neither from the government nor from the solar industry. Let us remember: in 2012 the feed-in tariffs were between 17 and 24 ct / kWh. Today we are between 3.9 and 10 ct / kWh. In the meantime, the German solar industry went through an extremely severe crisis, but is now more efficient than ever. On the way there, there was first a promotion of self-consumption of solar power, then it was covered by the EEG surcharge (from 10 kWp). And for systems over 750 kWp, tenders were introduced that were successfully designed by parts of the solar industry, while yesterday's board of directors of the Federal Association of the Solar Industry (BSW) still speaks of a “bureaucracy monster”. Also, there were no consistent and powerful suggestions from the industry, such as how to design a 'solidarity' or 'system-friendly' self-consumption, which the hardliners on the other side thankfully use as an argument against the solar industry. In the often quite old-fashioned EE association landscape, no suggestions were made for a sensible design of the politically widespread determination of remuneration through tenders. And that will fall on our feet (again). How, for example, a 'solidarity' or 'system-friendly' self-consumption can be designed, which the hardliners of the opposite side have thankfully used to this day as an argument against the solar economy. In the often quite old-fashioned EE association landscape, no suggestions were made for a sensible design of the politically widespread determination of remuneration through tenders. And that will fall on our feet (again). How, for example, a 'solidarity' or 'system-friendly' self-consumption can be designed, which the hardliners of the opposite side have thankfully used to this day as an argument against the solar economy. In the often quite old-fashioned EE association landscape, no suggestions were made for a sensible design of the politically widespread determination of remuneration through tenders. And that will fall on our feet (again).
Do the market segments of medium-sized roof systems and small outdoor systems collapse?
The already muted cheers about “the lid should go away” will turn into a depression for many actors. Because the remuneration is currently falling at 1.4% per month. Then the unsolicited subsidy rates, which are still so loved by many, will very soon be too low to implement roof systems with renovations, and in April / June 2020, in the open-air segment up to 750 kWp, they will approach the current rates in the tenders. And for systems that are economically in a bit of a dilemma due to their small size and nevertheless high costs for the mains connection (medium voltage) (between smaller systems in low voltage or the larger systems in the tender). Sometime between July and October 2020, the remuneration for roof systems of 40-750 kWp will fall below the 7 ct / kWh mark - a year before the regular end of the legislative period. Whatever the next one brings.
It is therefore no wonder that many developers are quickly finishing up their open-air systems with a size of more than 750 kWp - while rows of roof developers are saying goodbye to the market and so - after the summer break - reports from leading financiers are said to have collapsed. It just doesn't fit anymore, although according to the BNetzA, the number of new plants is still high until August.
In-house generation remains hampered
Of course, sensible self-consumption systems will continue to be implemented according to the current regime, but I dare to predict that these will not compensate for the massive slump in the segments described above. Because especially customers for commercial self-generation plants fear incalculable changes in the regulations and are therefore still often reluctant - heavy legacy of incalculable politics, triggered in 2014 by the abrupt change from self-consumption promotion to the often referred to as 'sun tax' with the EEG surcharge (the yes should actually promote solar energy). At the time, mind you, driven by the green State Secretary Rainer Baake, combined with a crude mix of arguments. The only relevant thing was missing: The system concept - the EEG surcharge is not responsible for network-friendly behavior; But it was probably the easiest thing to do there politically.
'Systemically' still difficult
Back in 2019 and in the hopefully soon 'post-lid' time: The adjustment mechanism for the EEG remuneration will react so slowly that 2020 will be a very tough year in the segments described, because further price implications for solar modules are not expected . So there is hardly any help from the side with the profitability in project development / leasing / renovation / realization / etc. Interest rates are already very low, and no push will come from the side.
What remains is the call for an increase in the feed-in tariff determined by Parliament, which will soon be coming. Pretty sure - as in all the years - without any design suggestions. Foam from the mouth of the well-positioned EEG opponents in the government and opposition is already guaranteed
Let's talk about it
Let us discuss new approaches and how the various actors could be brought in to create timely and task-oriented framework conditions for the vigorous expansion of renewables decided in Germany and the EU - over seven years after the introduction of the cover and five years after the introduction of the “solar tax '.
Gladly, for example, also at the Solar & Wind operator conference on October 14, 2019 in Stuttgart. Operator conference
Or at the leading conference of the innovative energy industry “20. Forum New Energy World ”on November 21 and 22, 2019 in Berlin. Forum New Energy World
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