Deep disparities define the global energy system
Welcome to a special edition of the energy mix newsletter focused on the World Energy Outlook 2019, the IEA’s flagship report that came out this morning.
Deep disparities define today’s energy world. The dissonance between well-supplied oil markets and growing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties. The gap between the ever-higher amounts of greenhouse gas emissions being produced and the insufficiency of stated policies to curb those emissions in line with international climate targets. The gap between the promise of energy for all and the lack of electricity access for 850 million people around the world.
Deep disparities define today’s energy world. The dissonance between well-supplied oil markets and growing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties. The gap between the ever-higher amounts of greenhouse gas emissions being produced and the insufficiency of stated policies to curb those emissions in line with international climate targets. The gap between the promise of energy for all and the lack of electricity access for 850 million people around the world.
WEO 2019 explores these widening fractures in detail. It explains the impact of today’s decisions on tomorrow’s energy systems, and describes a pathway that enables the world to meet climate, energy access and air quality goals while maintaining a strong focus on the reliability and affordability of energy for a growing global population. That pathway would require rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. As ever, decisions made by governments remain critical for the world’s energy future.
To go deeper, we invite you to explore the key findings online.
Understanding the scenarios
To get the most out of the WEO, it helps to understand the scenarios that frame its analysis. The WEO does not forecast the future. Its scenarios map out different routes the world could follow over the coming decades, depending on the policies, investments, technologies and other choices that decision makers pursue today. Together, these scenarios seek to address a fundamental issue – how to get from where we are now to where we want to go. You can read more about the scenarios here.
The path the world is on right now is shown by the Current Policies Scenario, which provides a baseline picture of how global energy systems would evolve if governments make no changes to their existing policies. In this scenario, energy demand rises by 1.3% a year to 2040, resulting in strains across all aspects of energy markets and a continued strong upward march in energy-related emissions.
The Stated Policies Scenario, formerly known as the New Policies Scenario, incorporates today’s policy intentions and targets in addition to existing measures. The aim is to hold up a mirror to today’s plans and illustrate their consequences. The future outlined in this scenario is still well off track from the aim of a secure and sustainable energy future. It describes a world in 2040 where hundreds of millions of people still go without access to electricity, where pollution-related premature deaths remain around today’s elevated levels, and where CO2 emissions would lock in severe impacts from climate change.
The Sustainable Development Scenario indicates what needs to be done differently to fully achieve climate and other energy goals that policy makers around the world have set themselves. Achieving this scenario – a path fully aligned with the Paris Agreement aim of holding the rise in global temperatures to well below 2°C and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5°C – requires rapid and widespread changes across all parts of the energy system. Sharp emission cuts are achieved thanks to multiple fuels and technologies providing efficient and cost-effective energy services for all.
No single or simple solution
'What comes through with crystal clarity in this year’s World Energy Outlook is there is no single or simple solution to transforming global energy systems,' said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director. 'Many technologies and fuels have a part to play across all sectors of the economy. For this to happen, we need strong leadership from policy makers, as governments hold the clearest responsibility to act and have the greatest scope to shape the future.'
Read our press release, or watch a livestream of Dr Birol’s press conference on the report, starting at 11am Paris time today.
This year’s WEO has updated outlooks across all key fuels: oil, natural gas, coal, electricity, renewables and energy efficiency. The report looks at how long US shale production can keep moving higher and shows that a three-way race is underway among coal, natural gas and renewables to provide power and heat to Asia’s fast-growing economies.
It also underlines the critical importance of energy efficiency as the world’s 'first fuel.' A sharp pick-up in efficiency improvements is the element that does the most to bring the world towards the Sustainable Development Scenario. Right now, efficiency improvements are slowing: the 1.2% rate in 2018 is around half the average seen since 2010 and remains far below the 3% rate that would be needed to help reach international climate and energy goals.
A special focus on Africa and on offshore wind
The launch of the WEO has become less of a one-day affair and more of a season. Two of the special focuses of this year’s publication were significant enough to be released in advance as standalone reports. They cover Africa’s energy future and what it means for global trends, and the huge potential that offshore wind may provide to energy systems of the future.
With more than 800 pages of strategic energy analysis, there’s a lot in WEO 2019 to get your head around. We figured you may have some questions as you explore its findings. To address some of the most frequent ones, we’ve put together a Q&A page that we hope will prove useful.
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