Gas Turbine Market Forecast – 2025 Revision

Almost all this sales activity has been driven by Data Center hyperscalers. Unlike gas turbine buyers in power generation and industry, these companies are behaving like the Mega Cap companies they are by signing multi-unit, multi-year contracts. In that IT / Computing sector, were seeing a race to scale, with projections ranging from $1 trillion to $5 trillion (USD) in CAPEX spend by 2030. Given that reliable power supplies have become the main bottleneck in this race to scale, it’s no wonder the contracts being signed by gas turbine OEMs are sizeable.

Forecast Revision summary

At the beginning of the year, we saw significant demand, both as a carryover from order activity in 2024, and from leading market indicators such as supply chain market drivers, OEM interviews, and other key market drivers.  At that time, we built into our market forecast the potential for market growth. However, after reviewing actual OEM order data over the course of the first six month of the year, further supply chain intelligence, and many interviews, we have determined that a significant update was required for all three of our forecast views (Base Case, Downside, and Upside).
 
Within our revision we used actual order information to strongly inform our analysis. In addition, we believe there are significant geopolitical and industry drivers (Data Center expansion or LNG capacity increases, for example) that are leading to a long term increase in gas turbine demand.

Regarding OEM activity within our revised Forecast, we note the following:

• Orders for Aeroderivatives from GE Vernova, Baker-Hughes, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Aero Power have been revised upward given detailed input from these OEMs.
• Orders for Light Industrials, particularly for Solar Gas Turbines serving the Data Center markets have been strongly revised upward to reflect new market intelligence.
• Orders for Heavy Frame units from the three major OEM’s (GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi) have all been revised upward given both detailed input from these OEM’s and new market intelligence.
• Finally, for the past ten years there has been one “under reported” segment of the gas turbine market — gas turbines sized between 0.5MW and 5MW.  As a part of our ongoing effort to improve the accuracy and scope of our report, we have completed the addition of over 13,000 gas turbines from the OEM: Kawasaki (Kawasaki Heavy Industries, KHI). Our revised forecast offers a forward view of how we expect these turbines from Kawasaki will perform in the market.

Our Gas Turbine Market Forecast is the only report in the industry that utilizes deep market intelligence to inform our data for a reliable view of the forward looking market.

Our annual Market Forecast has been developed jointly developed by Gas Turbine World, Dora Partners & Company, and McCoy Power Reports. Our analysis of the market uses a combination of “real world” order information reported by Gas Turbine OEM’s, hundreds of interviews, and other publicly available market intelligence to inform our forecasting model.