CalibSun NEXT - Advanced Photovoltaic Forecast Solutions
Achieve unmatched accuracy of intraday and day-ahead solar forecasts with NEXT by integrating Numerical Weather Prediction models with satellite images and existing on-site data from your solar plant. Available globally with no hardware required.
Unmatched forecast accuracy
Integration of on-site data from customer's PV site in combination with satellite and Numerical Prediction Models data ensures maximum forecast accuracy.
Adaptive algorithm
NEXT’s algorithm dynamically balances the weight between the different data sources depending on required forecast frequency which ensures seamless application across multiple sites and regions bound by different grid regimes.
Probabilistic and deterministic
Forecast scenarios with probabilistic quantiles ranging from P5 to P95 for improved trading strategy.
- Forecasts tailored to your business needs
- Leading intraday and day-ahead forecast with unmatched accuracy
INDEPENDENT SOLAR POWER PRODUCERS
Optimize your operation strategy by maximizing revenues and minimizing imbalance charges
- Reducing forecast deviation penalties
Minimizes penalties imposed by grid operators in the event of discrepancies between forecasted and actual production. - Maximization of revenue
Optimize your strategy between spot market trading, power purchase agreements,ancillary services and battery storage - Efficient storage management
Improves battery management to minimize storage degradation, extend battery life and reduce replacement costs.
AGGREGATORS & TRADERS
Maximize revenues from your photovoltaic assets with precise, reliable forecasts of available energy — both throughout the day and the day ahead.
- Maximized revenues
Take advantage of price differences between markets and optimize portfolio balancing. - Reduced penalties
Reduce the cost of penalties for forecast inaccuracies. - Enhanced risk assessment
Understand the variability of solar production through probabilistic forecasts, essential for balancing supply and managing financial risks..
Continuous data integration
NEXT continuously recalibrates its forecasts with site data.
Integration of on-site pyranometers and energy production meter data.
Reliable forecasts depend on the quality of the input data and the ability to analyze it effectively.
We have developed a seamless and fast process for integration of on-site irradiance and production data from the customers’ sites into our system. Our team of technical experts guides customers through the data onboarding process every step of the way, ensuring an efficient process.
INTRADAY AND DAY-AHEAD FORECASTS
Access up-to-date, accurate and reliable forecasts in real time.
By continually updating to the latest available data, NEXT remains relevant over all time horizons.
CalibSun constantly feeds its forecasting algorithm with weather models, also known as NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction), available every 6 hours. Satellite images, updated every 15 minutes, and data collected on site in real time provide accurate, up-to-date and reliable forecasts. NEXT also takes into account PV site-specific configurations to provide irradiance and power production forecasts.
PROBABILISTIC & DETERMINISTIC
NEXT combines probabilistic (P95-P5) and deterministic (P50) approaches.
Thanks to its probabilistic approach, NEXT allows you to build a variety of scenarios for your future production.
NEXT offers probabilistic confidence intervals to build different scenarios for future production. The probabilistic approach enables power plant operators, aggregators and traders to better manage the financial risks associated with fluctuations in energy production. For grid operators, the probabilistic approach helps plan measures to maintain grid stability.
K-NN Method
NEXT uses an ensemble statistical learning methodology developed in-house.
The NEXT algorithm is based on an ensemble statistical learning methodology of the k-nearest neighbors (kNN) type.
The NEXT algorithm combines several complementary input data sources with divergent spatial and temporal scales (NWP, satellite, in-situ measurements). It searches for similar patterns to the current meteorological situation in the data history, using an advanced method of estimating similarity between two meteorological situations developed in-house.
The algorithm aims to push back the limits of the state of the art, taking not only raw data from different sources, but also data transformed using standard models generally available on the market.
Thus, NEXT natively takes a combination of several weather models as input, as well as irradiance map forecasts from satellite imagery combined with robust and proven forecasting techniques such as Cloud Motion Vector (CMV).
Direct PV production forecasts
NEXT is able to provide direct PV production forecasts using real time data for a better representation of the photovoltaic plant's behavior.
There are two methods for anticipating production:
- The first, used by NEXT, involves an irradiance forecast followed by a power or energy conversion calculation, enabling detailed modeling of all irradiance components.
- The second involves directly forecasting power or energy, if measurements are available, offering a better representation of the photovoltaic plant's behavior.
NEXT algorithm seamlessly assigns relevant weights to its sources, across all time horizons, for its forecasts.
NEXT also integrates real-time site measurements. These measurements are used by the algorithm to constantly updated its forecasts based on the latest observations. The algorithm is continuously calibrated using real data collected by on-site sensors, enabling direct PV power forecast.