Version SolarFor - Solar Power Forecasting
SolarFor™ is a software solution for solar power forecasting. SolarFor™ delivers highly accurate predictions of solar power production for the operational horizon (ranging from a few minutes ahead in time, up to a couple of weeks). SolarFor™ is very flexible and has a long track record of producing accurate forecasts. Like WindFor™, SolarFor™ is applicable both on individual portfolios and on a country-wide scale. To learn more about SolarFor™ on a country-wide scale, see Total Forecast.
Why Do You Need ??Solarfor™
Intermittent power production from renewables, like solar farms, has transformed the electricity sector in many countries. Solar power forecasting is a necessity in such markets in order to plan accurately and operate the power system efficiently. This applies to both commercial players in liberalized power markets and system operators who need to understand the impact of renewable energy production in their portfolio and on the electricity system as a whole.
Transmission system operators need accurate solar power forecasts to maintain system stability. Intermittent power production from solar power can cause system instability and increase the cost of balancing the electricity system (e.g. from standby capacity). In order to increase system stability, reduce cost and minimize curtailment of solar power, it is essential for the system operator to be able to plan and manage the total power production based on accurate solar power forecast.
Accurate solar power forecasting is needed by asset owners and electricity traders in order to nominate and trade the power production efficiently. By increasing forecast accuracy, asset owners and traders can reduce costs of imbalance fees and penalties.
The highly accurate solar power forecasts delivered by SolarFor™ help asset owners, traders and system operators around the world to manage and optimize their portfolio every day.
Key Benefits
- Market leading solar power forecast accuracy
- Proven operational track record
- Reliable, stable and with high availability with a proven track record from clients requiring availability of 99,9% and above
- Robust, low maintenance system with minimal interference for the client
- Highly flexible and configurable to almost any conditions. SolarFor™ has been deployed and used over a large geographic area
- Supports asset owners and traders optimize their power production portfolio for accurate nomination and trading of electricity, minimizing imbalance fees and penalties
- Supports system operators manage overall electricity grid, increase system stability and minimize cost of balancing the system and reserve cost
- Self-learning algorithms which continuously adapt and re-configure power forecasts List of special tailored modules available, which can be deployed to handle complex requirements for specific and challenging solar farms or complex regulatory or commercial requirements in specific markets
- Efficient error handling, fall-back procedures and issue warning system
How Does Solarfor™ Work
SolarFor™ is initialized using historical weather and production data to train the models or relevant data describing the power curve from the design of the solar farm.
After initialization, forecasts are produced every time the system receives new data, which can be either updated weather forecasts or new production data. SolarFor™ can run in either online mode and continuously receive real-time production data or in off-line mode where historical data are retrieved monthly, or any other time interval. By integrating SolarFor™ directly with the SCADA system and thereby providing real-time production data, very accurate short-term forecasts can be achieved.
Weather forecasts (incl. ensemble forecasts) are typically supplied as an integrated part of the solution. The system can use one or more weather forecast providers as input and automatically detects the optimal prioritization of the different weather forecasts for each solar farm and for different forecast horizons. Weather data are also made available to the client such that the client can compare power forecasts and weather inputs.
The self-learning and self-calibrating algorithms will continuously learn about the solar farm characteristics and will adapt to changing conditions, seasonal variations, and as the photovoltaic module ages, such that forecasts stay accurate over time without the need for manual configuration.
By delivering schedules of availability and curtailments, the client can make sure that SolarFor™ takes these planned events into consideration. Furthermore, if the client provides real time availability and curtailment information from the solar farm, the data will be used to train models and adjust short term forecasts which significantly increase accuracy.
SolarFor™ can deliver power forecasts in almost any file format and can be integrated directly into the operational IT-platform of the client, such that data are retrieved and delivered seamlessly to and from relevant systems.
SolarFor™ is available as a software package installed locally on the client’s servers, or as a service hosted on servers operated and maintained by ENFOR™.
SolarFor™ is supplied with various support, maintenance and license packages, which can be tailor-made to client specifications to provide a cost/performance ratio which fits the needs of the individual client.
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